November 2024 Edition

Agriculture & Natural Resources
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Russell County Agriculture and Natural Resources October 2024 Newsletter 

Russell County Extension Office

2688 S. HWY 127 
Russell Springs, KY 42642

Phone: (270) 866 - 44 77 
Fax: (270) 866 - 8645 
russell.ca. uky .edu 

Jonathan Oakes 
CEA for Agriculture and Natural Resources

UPCOMING EVENTS

Beekeeper's Meeting 
November 7th: 6 PM CST 
Russell County Extension Office 

2nd Round Approval CAIP Receipt Deadline

November 8th, 2024 

Summer Sausage & Meat Smoking 
November I 1th: 5 PM CST 
Russell County Extension Office 

Feeder Calf Program: Managing Newly Purchased Feeder Calves for Improved Immunity 
November 14th: 5:30 PM CST 
Russell County Schools Auditorium 
2167 U.S 127, Russell Springs, KY 42642 

NOTICE: The Russell County Extension Office will be closed on the following dates: 
Tuesday, Nov. 5th: Election Day

Thursday, Nov. 28th - Friday, Nov. 29th: Thanksgiving 

OFF THE HOOF

Kentucky Beef Cattle Newsletter

Timely Tips 
Dr. Les Anderson, Beef Extension Professor, University of Kentucky 
Spring-calving herds 

•    Schedule a pregnancy examination of cows if not done previously. Winter feeding costs can be minimized by eliminating open cows prior to winterieeding. Pregnancy status (pregnant versus open) can be determined using palpation, transrectal ultrasonography, or blood sampling. Stage of pregnancy can only be determined by palpation or ultrasonography (perfonned by your veterinarian). A new chute-side blood sampling kit (Alertys from IDEXX) is available for use. It provides yes/no pregnancy data in 20 minutes for about $8-10 per cow.

•    Evaluate the body condition of your cows and improve their condition prior to winter. It takes about 75 pounds to increase body condition a full score.

•    If you have already done a preweaning working, revaccinate (booster) calves as needed. Treat calves for internal and external parasites. If you vaccinate calves yourself, be sure to store, handle, and administer vaccines properly.
•    Wean calves before cows lose body condition.

• Obtain weaning weights of your calves and remember weaning is the time to do your first round of culling and selecting breeding stock. You can eliminate obviously inferior calves, especially those with wild or nervous dispositions. Consider the number of heifers that you will need to save for your cow herd. Bulls that are old, unsound, roguish, etc. can be culled now. It is not too early to begin thinking about replacements.

Fall-calving herds

•    The calving season should be in full swing for fall-calving cows. Check cows frequently. Identify calves and commercial males should be castrated and implanted.

• Take accurate records of calving and calving performance. Our new app (Stocket at Stocket.us) makes data collection and reporting simple, easy, and convenient.
• Put fall-calving cows on accumulated pasture before the breeding season. Be sure to save some grass in the breeding pastures.
• It is time to get everything ready for the fall-breeding season, too. Line-up semen, supplies, etc. now and get your bulls ready to go (don't forget their breeding soundness evaluation). Breeding soundness exams are a vital component to reducing the risk of reproductive performance and need to be conducted 30-45 days before EVERY breeding season. Contact your herd veterinarian to schedule the exams.
• Obtain yearling measurements (weight, hip height, scrotal circumference, etc.) on replacement animals - especially for registered ones.
• Contact your herd veterinarian and schedule pelvic area examinations and reproductive tract scores for your potential replacements. Use pelvic area to identify larger heifers with smaller than normal pelvic areas so you can remove them from the breeding pool. Reproductive tract scores can be used to identify immature heifers for culling. Typically, heifers with a reproductive tract score less than 3 have limited ability to conceive early in the breeding season.

Stockers

•    If you are purchasing weaned/stressed calves, have your receiving/feeding program in place. Feed a stress ration which contains at least 13% protein and is fairly energy dense.
•    Manage to keep newly weaned and/or purchased calves healthy. Calves should be penned in a small lot with adequate feed, water, and shade to reduce stress. Careful handling and comfortable, uncrowded conditions can decrease stress.
•    When newly weaned calves are purchased in the fall, sickness and death loss can be a big problem. Work with your veterinarian on a health and receiving program. Consider purchasing CPH-45 feeder calves that are preweaned, vaccinated, bunk-adjusted and treated for parasites.

• Watch calves closely for a few weeks after their arrival. Calves will normally break (get sick) 5-7 days after arrival, but they can break up to 14 clays after they arrive. Have a treatment program ready for any health problems. Early recognition of sick cattle improves their chance of recovery. Watch for drooped ears, hollow appearance, reluctance to rise, stiff gait, coughing and dull or sunken eyes. A good "receiving" program is essential to profitability.

General Reminders

•    Avoid prussic acid poisoning that can happen when frost ruptures the plant cells in sorghums, sorghum-sudan hybrids, sudangrass, and johnsongrass releasing prussic (hyclrocyanic) acid. Fields can be grazed after the plants have dried up after a frost. New growth that occurs in stalk fields is potentially dangerous whether frosted or not.
•    Take soil samples for soil analysis to determine pasture fertility needs. Apply phosphate, potash, and lime accordingly.
•    Test hay quality and make inventory of hay supplies and needs. Adjust now - buy feed before you run out in the winter.
•    Do not harvest or graze alfalfa now so the plant can replenish its root reserves.

• Remove fly-control eartags from all animals, dispose of according to instructions on package. Treat for grubs/lice.

A Windy Start to Fall 
Jane Marie Wix and Philomon Geertson - NWS Jackson, KY

Usually for this time of year we talk about increased winds during the fall season, and wind safety. However, most of the time we aren't referring to high winds due to a hurricane! Hurricane Helene wreaked havoc as it moved inland - all the way north into Kentucky. It's not the first time we've experienced the remnants of a hurricane in this state, and it won't be the last. But, having such high impacts is quite rare. We thought this would be a good time to recap what happened. 

The remnants of Hurricane Helene brought widespread wind damage to much of Kentucky on Friday, September 27th. Helene initially made landfall along Florida's Big Bend region during the late evening of Thursday, September 26th as a fast-moving Category 4 hurricane. The hurricane's rapid forward movement did not give the system much time to weaken by the time the system's tropical rain bands spread across eastern Kentucky by early Friday morning. As the dissipating core of the hurricane approached, northeast to easterly winds rapidly intensified across eastern Kentucky between 6 AM and 10 AM EDT. Wind gusts peaked at around 12 PM, ranging from 35 to 60+ mph at most locations. The strongest wind gust in eastern Kentucky, 64 mph, was reported atop Koomer Ridge just west of Campton. The combination of full foliage on the trees, saturated soils, and an atypical wind direction led to many uprooted trees, resulting in blocked roads and extensive power line damage. Isolated instances of structural damage were also observed. 

Power outages across the Commonwealth numbered over 200,000 customers, the vast number of which were in eastern Kentucky, by the time the winds had diminished Friday afternoon. Kentucky Power alone reported at least 137 broken power poles and 734 spans of downed wire. Clark Energy reported over a 100 broken poles in their service area. Jackson Energy reported 71 broken power poles and close to 400 spans of downed wire. Power restoration efforts continued for days after the storm, as some customers in the hardest hit locations did not see their power restored until October 3rd. There were also several reports received of trees falling on homes. Fortunately, only 1 injury was reported in the state, due to a tree falling on a home. The winds also put a damper on the festivities at the World Chicken Festival in Laurel County and the Sorghum Festival in Morgan County for most of the day. 

On a non-wind note - before the hurricane, weeks of unusually dry weather had led to the development of abnormally dry to severe drought conditions across most of the state. Thus, when a sluggish frontal boundary and upper level low became somewhat stationary over the state earlier in the week (around September 23rd and 24th}, the repeated rounds of rainfall were highly beneficial for alleviating the drought. Additional rainfall from Helene, therefore, only led to minor instances of stream and street flooding. 

Outside of Helene, one of the last impactful hurricanes that I remember in Kentucky was Hurricane Ike in 2008. The remnants of this hurricane brought sustained strong winds and high wind gusts to western and central Kentucky. Wind gusts ranged from 50-75 mph, with the fastest gust recorded at 75 mph at the Louisville Airport. Louisville also experienced its worst power outage ever, with over 400,000 homes losing power. Sadly, nine souls also lost their lives in this event. Many people in the state called this storm "Dry Ike", because while it brought high winds, it didn't bring any precipitation with it! 
It's been an active hurricane season thus far, especially for those in Florida. While technically hurricane season spans from June 1st until November 30th, most hurricanes form during the months of August, September, and October. As we head into November, hopefully this means hurricane activity is winding down, and we won't experience any more Hurricane Helene-like storms - but we'll have to wait and see. 

Economic and Policy Update

Fall 2024 Wheat Planting Decision 
Author(s): Greg Halich 
Published: September 27, 2024 

Corn harvest is now underway and Kentucky grain farmers will soon decide if and how much wheat they will plant this fall. Compared to last year there is a drop in both soybean and wheat prices, a drop in fuel price, and mostly stable fertilizer prices. The following analysis quantifies these relative changes to estimate the profitability of crops harvested in 2025. The analysis includes estimated returns comparing double-cropped wheat/soybeans with full-season soybeans for the 2025 crop, and the likely implications for Kentucky grain farmers. 
Additional costs associated with double-cropping are accounted for, including fuel, fertilizer, herbicides, machinery repairs and depreciation  labor, hauling, etc. The analysis assumes a blended mix of selling directly from the field and selling from storage for both wheat and soybeans, as well as expected basis for each crop with those scenarios. This results in 2025 crop blended prices  of $5.85/bu. for wheat and $10. 70/bu. for soybeans given Future's prices at the close of 9/24/24.

Two regions with different agronomic characteristics are evaluated. The first region is along the southwest tier of counties roughly between I-24 and I-65, which traditionally does a lot of double­cropping. The second region is the northwest tier of Kentucky counties (Ohio Valley region) that has some of the best yields for corn and soybeans, but traditionally plants less wheat. Cash rent is assumed to be $200/acre for both these regions for the average ground and $250/acre on the best ground (note: this will vary substantially, but is done here for illustrative purposes only). Other major assumptions are: $3.00/gallon fuel, 50-mile one-way grain hauling, $.54/unit N, $.58/unit P, and $.38/unit K. 

Southwest Tier Assumptions (Average Ground): 
72 bu. wheat 
42 bu. double-cropped soybeans 
50 bu. full-season soybeans 

Resulting Net Profits

- $9 double-crop

-$50 Full-season soybeans

This results in a $41 difference in favor of full-season soybeans. The double-cropped soybean yield would have to increase to 46 bu. before the double-crop was as profitable. This would equate to a 8% yield loss of double-cropped soybeans compared to full-season soybeans. 

Southwest Tier Assumptions (Best Ground): 
90 bu. wheat 
51 bu. double-cropped soybeans 
60 bu. full-season soybeans 

Resulting net profits:

+$91 double-crop 
+$43 full-season soybeans

This results in a $48 difference in favor of the wheat-soybean double-crop. The double-cropped soybean yield could drop down to 46 bu. before full-season soybeans were as profitable. This would equate to a 23% yield loss of double-cropped soybeans compared to full-season soybeans.  

Northwest Tier Assumptions (Average Ground): 
65 bu. wheat 
42 bu. double-cropped soybeans 
50 bu. full-season soybeans 

Resulting net profits: 

-    $89 double-crop
-    $9 full-season soybeans

This results in a $80 difference in favor of full-season soybeans. The double-cropped soybean yield would have to increase to 50 bu. in this case before the double-crop was as profitable. This would mean there would have to be no yield loss of double-cropped soybeans compared to full-season soybeans before the double-crop was as profitable. 

Northwest Tier Assumptions (Best Ground): 
75 bu. wheat 
51 bu. double-cropped soybeans 
60 bu. full-season soybeans

Resulting Net Profits

+$8 double-crop 
+$43 full-season soybeans

This results in a $35 difference in favor of full-season soybeans. The double-cropped soybean yield would have to increase to 55 bu. in this case before the double-crop was as profitable. This would equate to a 9% yield loss of double-cropped soybeans compared to full-season soybeans. 

Summary Recommendations: Given the current expected market conditions (9/24/24), planting wheat looks attractive this fall only on the best ground in the Southwest Tier. On average ground in the Southwest Tier and the best ground in the Northwest Tier there was a moderate advantage to full­-season soybeans. On average ground in the Northwest Tier there was a clear advantage for full- season soybeans. These results are similar to last fall in terms of the relative profitability between the two systems. However, overall profitability is down substantially in all scenarios compared to last year given the drop in commodity prices. 
This analysis does not account for potential payments from Farm Bill programs. However, these programs would pay on base acre crop allocation and not planted acres, so there would be no effect on the planting decision. This analysis also does not account for the potential of harvesting straw, which is typically more common in ·central Kentucky. 
To change the assumptions above to your specific conditions and evaluate your expected profitability, 
go to the budget site at https://agecon.ca.uky.edu/extension/publications-budgets-decisions-aids. The Corn-Soybean Budgets and Wheat Budgets can be downloaded or opened directly from this page. 
[1] $20/acre was deducted from the double-crop scenario to account for fixed depreciation on the wheat enterprise that should not factor into the wheat planting decision. 

Recommended Citation Format: 
Halich, G. "Fall 2024 Wheat Planting Decision." Economic and Policy Update (24):9, Department of Agricultural Ecohomics, University of f<entucky, September 27, 2024. 

Author(s) Contact Information: 
Greg Halich I greg halich@11ky edu